Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 40%
$4.0K
-$36.07
78.1¢ → 80.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 78¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$0 | 41% 144-209 (353) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 78¢ | $780 | $805 | +$25 | 53% 7060-6194 (13254) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $703.13 | $638.92 | -$64.21 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $221.71 | $221.71 | +$0 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 79¢ | $214.2 | $218.27 | +$4.07 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $49.16 | $48.04 | -$1.12 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.21 | $15.7 | +$0.49 | 60% 712-483 (1195) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $11.77 | $11.77 | -$0 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $3.42 | $3.09 | -$0.32 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.32 | $1.35 | +$0.03 | 30% 335-776 (1111) |
Invested
$2,080.57
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
144-209 (353)
Invested
$780
Value
$805
PnL
+$25
Record
53%
7060-6194 (13254)
Invested
$703.13
Value
$638.92
PnL
-$64.21
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$221.71
Value
$221.71
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$214.2
Value
$218.27
PnL
+$4.07
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
Invested
$49.16
Value
$48.04
PnL
-$1.12
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$15.7
PnL
+$0.49
Record
60%
712-483 (1195)
Invested
$11.77
Value
$11.77
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$3.09
PnL
-$0.32
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0.03
Record
30%
335-776 (1111)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.