RCD Mallorca vs. Córdoba CF: Both Teams to Score

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 63¢ · $715 held · ended Nov 14

Yes63¢No37¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$715.36

Combined PnL

$75.79

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$511.97

Total Shares582

Combined PnL+$150.51

No5 traders

Total Value$202.59

Total Shares776

Combined PnL-$74.71

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 60.3¢	$257.14	$368.25	+$116.06	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 27.6¢	$97.58	$107.72	+$10.15	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$61.36	$91.52	+$30.16	37% 78-132 (210)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$87.57	$59.11	-$28.46	37% 977-1669 (2646)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$44.82	$48.1	+$3.28	47% 973-1108 (2081)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$48.79	$19.04	-$29.75	37% 985-1642 (2627)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$39.33	$12.1	-$27.23	37% 968-1674 (2642)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 25.8¢	$4.04	$4.62	+$0.58	48% 912-1002 (1914)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$3.11	$4.11	+$1	48% 293-321 (614)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$257.14

Value

$368.25

PnL

+$116.06

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$97.58

Value

$107.72

PnL

+$10.15

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.36

Value

$91.52

PnL

+$30.16

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$87.57

Value

$59.11

PnL

-$28.46

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.82

Value

$48.1

PnL

+$3.28

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$48.79

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$29.75

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$39.33

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$27.23

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.