Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Real Oviedo vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 49¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$6.3K
$68.9
47.3¢ → 49¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 12monkeys | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$12.73 | 37% 503-862 (1365) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$52.94 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $455.9 | $465.6 | +$4.85 | 50% 34712-34175 (68887) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 47.7¢ | $723.75 | $350.68 | +$15.41 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $242.05 | $249.78 | +$7.72 | 49% 13480-14176 (27656) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $27.26 | $27.55 | +$0.29 | 46% 9230-10942 (20172) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.6¢ | $20.85 | $21.26 | +$0.41 | 62% 1231-751 (1982) |
12monkeysInvested
$3,082.4
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$12.73
Record
37%
503-862 (1365)
Invested
$2,059.32
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$52.94
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$455.9
Value
$465.6
PnL
+$4.85
Record
50%
34712-34175 (68887)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$723.75
Value
$350.68
PnL
+$15.41
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
Invested
$242.05
Value
$249.78
PnL
+$7.72
Record
49%
13480-14176 (27656)
Invested
$27.26
Value
$27.55
PnL
+$0.29
Record
46%
9230-10942 (20172)
Invested
$20.85
Value
$21.26
PnL
+$0.41
Record
62%
1231-751 (1982)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.