Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Real Oviedo vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,694

Combined PnL-$239.27

Under6 traders

Total Value$368.89

Total Shares6,115

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$52.83	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$773.51	$1.3K	+$524.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$945.97	$368.36	-$577.61
RN1	Overavg 44.6¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$252.72	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$513.86	$313.28	-$200.58	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 43.4¢	$153.75	$136.29	-$17.46	46% 309-368 (677)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$104.44	$104.97	+$0.53	99% 505-7 (512)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 53¢	$44.65	$74.95	+$30.3	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$44.93	$45.65	+$0.72	36% 510-915 (1425)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$3.75	$7.5	+$3.75	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.88	+$0.08	35% 394-728 (1122)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 34.7¢	$1.7K	$2.44	$-1.7K	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$4.71	$0.01	-$4.7	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$4.83	$0.01	-$4.82	48% 2212-2378 (4590)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,221.82

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$52.83

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

Both legs:

Over$773.5148¢+$524.78

Under$945.9744.9¢-$577.61

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,853.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$252.72

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$513.86

Value

$313.28

PnL

-$200.58

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$153.75

Value

$136.29

PnL

-$17.46

Record

46%

309-368 (677)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$104.44

Value

$104.97

PnL

+$0.53

Record

99%

505-7 (512)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$44.65

Value

$74.95

PnL

+$30.3

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.93

Value

$45.65

PnL

+$0.72

Record

36%

510-915 (1425)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.75

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$3.75

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.08

Record

35%

394-728 (1122)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,694.71

Value

$2.44

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.71

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.7

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.82

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.