Will Real Oviedo vs. Girona FC end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$122.63

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 85¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,785

Combined PnL+$150.12

Yes4 traders

Total Value$181.03

Total Shares661

Combined PnL-$27.49

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67¢	$976.37	$1.1K	+$145.78	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
RN1	Noavg 84¢	$201.44	$202.64	+$1.2	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 23.1¢	$162.95	$123.91	-$23.5	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.1¢	$103.4	$71.75	-$31.64
└ No leg	Noavg 73.5¢	$45.63	$52.16	+$8.14
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$147.79	$112.55	-$35.24	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$52.88	$63.1	+$10.22	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$25.87	$24.27	-$1.6	31% 370-819 (1189)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 58¢	$19	$22.77	+$3.77	52% 883-823 (1706)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$11.51	$12.41	+$0.9	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Noavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.58	+$0.08	49% 539-568 (1107)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.72	$2.75	+$0.03	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$5.13	$2.63	-$2.5	37% 1053-1783 (2836)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$976.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$145.78

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

RN1

Invested

$201.44

Value

$202.64

PnL

+$1.2

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$162.95

Value

$123.91

PnL

-$23.5

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Both legs:

Yes$103.423.1¢-$31.64

No$45.6373.5¢+$8.14

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.79

Value

$112.55

PnL

-$35.24

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.88

Value

$63.1

PnL

+$10.22

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$25.87

Value

$24.27

PnL

-$1.6

Record

31%

370-819 (1189)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$3.77

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$11.51

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$0.9

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

539-568 (1107)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.72

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.13

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$2.5

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.