Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-11-08?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 57¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$2.1K
$61.88
52.6¢ → 57.5¢
+9% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 51.3¢ | $573.02 | $596.04 | +$24.1 | — |
 RN1 | Noavg 54¢ | $424.77 | $444.61 | +$19.84 | — |
GC GC-P | Noavg 52.7¢ | $594.39 | $318 | +$4.88 | — |
NM NM-P | Noavg 52.3¢ | $561.66 | $300.49 | +$6.71 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53¢ | $275.02 | $277.61 | +$2.6 | — |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $52.07 | $56.74 | +$4.67 | — |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $29.12 | $28.86 | -$0.26 | — |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $25.64 | $25.4 | -$0.24 | — |
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.7¢ | $8.95 | $8.54 | -$0.41 | — |
Invested
$573.02
Value
$596.04
PnL
+$24.1
Record
—
RN1Invested
$424.77
Value
$444.61
PnL
+$19.84
Record
—
Invested
$594.39
Value
$318
PnL
+$4.88
Record
—
Invested
$561.66
Value
$300.49
PnL
+$6.71
Record
—
Invested
$275.02
Value
$277.61
PnL
+$2.6
Record
—
Invested
$52.07
Value
$56.74
PnL
+$4.67
Record
—
Invested
$29.12
Value
$28.86
PnL
-$0.26
Record
—
Invested
$25.64
Value
$25.4
PnL
-$0.24
Record
—
Invested
$8.95
Value
$8.54
PnL
-$0.41
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.