CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF: O/U 2.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$1.2

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$541.92

Total Shares948

Combined PnL-$5

Over1 trader

Total Value$323.4

Total Shares761

Combined PnL+$3.8

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 58¢	$337.82	$332	-$5.82	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 42¢	$319.6	$323.4	+$3.8	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$200	$199	-$1	75% 112-37 (149)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$114	+$14
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$85	-$15
VeryLucky888	Underavg 57¢	$167.82	$169.29	+$1.47	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 58¢	$31.9	$31.35	-$0.55	56% 307-245 (552)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 57¢	$3.58	$3.58	+$0	47% 189-212 (401)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.91	$2.86	-$0.05	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.85	-$0.05	43% 808-1065 (1873)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$337.82

Value

$332

PnL

-$5.82

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$319.6

Value

$323.4

PnL

+$3.8

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$199

PnL

-$1

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Invested

$167.82

Value

$169.29

PnL

+$1.47

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.9

Value

$31.35

PnL

-$0.55

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$3.58

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$2.91

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.