Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CD Leganés win on 2026-11-13?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$38.47

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 40.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,364

Combined PnL+$19.81

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,469

Combined PnL+$18.66

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$21.43	1% 1-132 (133)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 60¢	$647.42	$653.52	+$6.11	33% 251-499 (750)
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$488.62	$492.69	+$4.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39¢	$158.8	$160.84	+$2.04
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 60¢	$582	$586.85	+$4.85	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
NM NM-P	Noavg 60¢	$521.25	$525.74	+$4.49	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 60¢	$254.36	$184.15	-$1.45	53% 1030-921 (1951)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 60¢	$114.6	$115.55	+$0.95	47% 191-212 (403)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 60¢	$58.97	$59.47	+$0.49	36% 326-587 (913)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 56.8¢	$37.86	$45.13	+$7.27	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.2¢	$30.48	$28.86	-$1.62	56% 309-246 (555)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 60¢	$14.54	$16.6	+$2.06	35% 736-1380 (2116)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.95	-$0	43% 809-1065 (1874)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,714.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$21.43

Record

1-132 (133)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$647.42

Value

$653.52

PnL

+$6.11

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

No$488.6260¢+$4.07

Yes$158.839¢+$2.04

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$582

Value

$586.85

PnL

+$4.85

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

NM-P

Invested

$521.25

Value

$525.74

PnL

+$4.49

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$254.36

Value

$184.15

PnL

-$1.45

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$114.6

Value

$115.55

PnL

+$0.95

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$58.97

Value

$59.47

PnL

+$0.49

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$37.86

Value

$45.13

PnL

+$7.27

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.48

Value

$28.86

PnL

-$1.62

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$14.54

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$2.06

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.