Will Burgos CF win on 2026-11-13?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$16.65

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 69.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,573

Combined PnL-$14.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$95.75

Total Shares308

Combined PnL-$1.94

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 70¢	$985.21	$971.14	-$14.07	6% 17-277 (294)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 29.1¢	$354.11	$357.55	+$3.44	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.1¢	$247.05	$254.86	+$7.8
└ No leg	Noavg 71.9¢	$107.06	$102.69	-$4.37
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$400	$198	-$2	75% 112-37 (149)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$138	+$38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$60	-$40
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$99.46	$97.37	-$2.09	56% 307-245 (552)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$55.74	$55.74	-$0	47% 189-212 (401)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.9¢	$30.07	$28.28	-$1.79	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 68¢	$21.25	$21.56	+$0.31	33% 88-181 (269)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$46.55	$17.71	+$1.13	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.2¢	$11.88	$11.73	-$0.15	43% 808-1065 (1873)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$985.21

Value

$971.14

PnL

-$14.07

Record

17-277 (294)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$354.11

Value

$357.55

PnL

+$3.44

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Yes$247.0529.1¢+$7.8

No$107.0671.9¢-$4.37

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Invested

$400

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

No$10050¢+$38

Yes$10050¢-$40

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$99.46

Value

$97.37

PnL

-$2.09

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.74

Value

$55.74

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.07

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$1.79

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$21.25

Value

$21.56

PnL

+$0.31

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$46.55

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$1.13

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.73

PnL

-$0.15

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.