Granada CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$398.16

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 98.2¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,579

Combined PnL+$418.64

Over10 traders

Total Value$23.75

Total Shares316

Combined PnL-$20.48

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (13 on Over) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 75.3¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$406.83	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
RN1	Underavg 92¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 78.7¢	$879.43	$841.85	-$37.58	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 70¢	$167.77	$220.5	+$52.73	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Underavg 82¢	$85.46	$69.78	-$12.8	29% 50-123 (173)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 70¢	$30.1	$39.56	+$9.46	48% 472-515 (987)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$7.18	$8.2	+$1.03	59% 747-512 (1259)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$17.87	$5.11	-$12.76	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 9.2¢	$4.16	$3.63	-$0.54	41% 127-186 (313)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$3	$2	-$1	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$5.78	$1.65	-$4.13	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$3.41	$1.6	-$1.8	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$1.71	$0.53	-$1.18	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.62	$0.45	-$0.17	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.4	+$0.05	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.2¢	$0.15	$0.18	+$0.02	35% 635-1160 (1795)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,427.46

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$406.83

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,448.31

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$879.43

Value

$841.85

PnL

-$37.58

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$167.77

Value

$220.5

PnL

+$52.73

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

MinevaJ<$100

Under

Invested

$85.46

Value

$69.78

PnL

-$12.8

Record

29%

50-123 (173)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$30.1

Value

$39.56

PnL

+$9.46

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.18

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$1.03

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.87

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$12.76

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.16

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.54

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.78

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$4.13

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.41

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$1.8

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$1.18

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (13 on Over) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.