Granada CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5

1 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (6%) · Over at 52¢ · $65K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 6%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.2K

Combined PnL

$7.37

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 17 top traders (6%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$37.7K

Total Shares73,244

Combined PnL+$387.37

Under16 traders

Total Value$27.3K

Total Shares56,433

Combined PnL-$380

Over — 6%Under — 94%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 94% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE DelidelaDele	Overavg 51¢	$37.3K	$37.7K	+$387.37	16% 6-31 (37)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Underavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.7K	-$100	59% 32-22 (54)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 49¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$40.69	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$35.82	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
RN1CTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$50	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 49.3¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$49.72	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$16.32	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$889.1	$866.73	-$22.37	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 49¢	$681.61	$667.7	-$13.91	35% 628-1146 (1774)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 49¢	$664.17	$650.61	-$13.55	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 49¢	$602.4	$590.1	-$12.29	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 49¢	$500.11	$495.01	-$5.1	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$437.33	$430.56	-$6.77	48% 471-508 (979)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 49¢	$430.89	$422.09	-$8.79	41% 160-234 (394)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$800	$198	-$2	64% 145-81 (226)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$102	+$2
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$96	-$4
BI biying99999CTR	Underavg 49¢	$175.91	$172.32	-$3.59	40% 152-227 (379)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$39.2	$38.8	-$0.4	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$31.85	$31.2	-$0.65	56% 651-514 (1165)

DelidelaDele

Over

Invested

$37,333.04

Value

$37.7K

PnL

+$387.37

Record

16%

6-31 (37)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Under

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$100

Record

59%

32-22 (54)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$3,988.09

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$40.69

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$3,510.76

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$35.82

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$50

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,865.15

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$49.72

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$1,599.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$16.32

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$889.1

Value

$866.73

PnL

-$22.37

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$681.61

Value

$667.7

PnL

-$13.91

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$664.17

Value

$650.61

PnL

-$13.55

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$602.4

Value

$590.1

PnL

-$12.29

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$500.11

Value

$495.01

PnL

-$5.1

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$437.33

Value

$430.56

PnL

-$6.77

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$430.89

Value

$422.09

PnL

-$8.79

Record

41%

160-234 (394)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$800

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

Invested

$175.91

Value

$172.32

PnL

-$3.59

Record

40%

152-227 (379)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.2

Value

$38.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.85

Value

$31.2

PnL

-$0.65

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 17 top traders (6%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 94% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.