Granada CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 0.5

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (41%) · Over at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 41%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$411.23

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares13,523

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under10 traders

Total Value$60.68

Total Shares4,374

Combined PnL-$855.29

Over — 41%Under — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-56 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (16 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 83.4¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$355.2	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
RN1	Overavg 83¢	$3.3K	$3.6K	+$349.32	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 83.7¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$484.43	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 87¢	$403.68	$463.77	+$60.09	29% 50-123 (173)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 82.8¢	$43.78	$52.87	+$9.1	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 86¢	$31.42	$36.52	+$5.1	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 12.2¢	$70.87	$31.42	-$39.45	41% 127-186 (313)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$6.83	$27.32	+$20.49	48% 472-515 (987)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 85¢	$18.7	$21.99	+$3.29	45% 984-1181 (2165)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 22.3¢	$430.86	$0.96	-$429.89	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 21¢	$176.8	$0.42	-$176.38	35% 635-1160 (1795)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 21.7¢	$175.28	$0.4	-$174.87	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$14.94	$0.06	-$14.88	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 21.6¢	$18.59	$0.04	-$18.55	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$9.2	$0.02	-$9.18	78% 379-110 (489)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 19.3¢	$6.75	$0.02	-$6.73	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$5.85	$0.01	-$5.84	41% 1189-1686 (2875)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$5,795.59

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$355.2

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

RN1

Over

Invested

$3,286.61

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$349.32

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$3,027.06

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$484.43

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$403.68

Value

$463.77

PnL

+$60.09

Record

29%

50-123 (173)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$43.78

Value

$52.87

PnL

+$9.1

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$31.42

Value

$36.52

PnL

+$5.1

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.87

Value

$31.42

PnL

-$39.45

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.83

Value

$27.32

PnL

+$20.49

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$18.7

Value

$21.99

PnL

+$3.29

Record

45%

984-1181 (2165)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$430.86

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$429.89

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$176.8

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$176.38

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$175.28

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$174.87

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.94

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$14.88

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.59

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$18.55

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.18

Record

78%

379-110 (489)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.75

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.73

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.85

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.84

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-56 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (16 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.