Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$78.09

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares8,028

Combined PnL+$36.82

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares8,558

Combined PnL+$41.27

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 77¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$30.58	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$42.3	41% 155-221 (376)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 77¢	$592.57	$596.42	+$3.85	52% 2443-2220 (4663)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 76.8¢	$477.21	$481.54	+$4.33	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
VE Venusian	Noavg 77¢	$370.73	$368.32	-$2.41	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$400	$198	-$2	65% 144-79 (223)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$152	+$52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$46	-$54
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$22.5	$22.8	+$0.3	56% 636-504 (1140)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$20.93	$19.87	-$1.06	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 75¢	$13.27	$7.6	+$0.18	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.19	$1.22	+$0.03	41% 1163-1648 (2811)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.19	$1.19	+$0	59% 3945-2726 (6671)

Limousin

Invested

$4,708.65

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$30.58

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,945.97

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$42.3

Record

41%

155-221 (376)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$592.57

Value

$596.42

PnL

+$3.85

Record

52%

2443-2220 (4663)

MadridTime

Invested

$477.21

Value

$481.54

PnL

+$4.33

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

Venusian

Invested

$370.73

Value

$368.32

PnL

-$2.41

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Invested

$400

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

65%

144-79 (223)

Both legs:

No$10050¢+$52

Yes$10050¢-$54

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.93

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$13.27

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

1163-1648 (2811)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3945-2726 (6671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.