Will Granada CF win on 2026-11-15?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$33.95

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,406

Combined PnL+$81.96

No6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,464

Combined PnL-$48.01

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$29.67	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Noavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$30	5% 29-528 (557)
TY Tys0n8686	Yesavg 45.7¢	$627.68	$679.6	+$51.92	65% 17-9 (26)
BI biying99999CTR	Noavg 54¢	$192.78	$178.5	-$14.28	40% 150-224 (374)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$36.74	$37.11	+$0.37	48% 2479-2702 (5181)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$31.91	$28.49	-$3.42	56% 636-504 (1140)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$16.47	$16.64	+$0.17	41% 155-221 (376)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$12.79	$8.45	-$0.44	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.04	-$0.04	48% 468-503 (971)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,979.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.67

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$30

Record

29-528 (557)

Tys0n8686

Yes

Invested

$627.68

Value

$679.6

PnL

+$51.92

Record

65%

17-9 (26)

biying99999CTR

Invested

$192.78

Value

$178.5

PnL

-$14.28

Record

40%

150-224 (374)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.74

Value

$37.11

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

2479-2702 (5181)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.91

Value

$28.49

PnL

-$3.42

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Invested

$16.47

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$0.17

Record

41%

155-221 (376)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$12.79

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.