Granada CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 62¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$22.12

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 61.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares6,168

Combined PnL+$415.35

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,156

Combined PnL-$393.24

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 66¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$242.11	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
12monkeysCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$1.3K	$950	-$343.5	35% 19-36 (55)
RN1	Noavg 62¢	$908.74	$938.12	+$29.38	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$485	$500.63	+$15.64	41% 127-186 (313)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.7¢	$243.29	$292.08	+$48.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.2¢	$241.7	$208.56	-$33.15
VeryLucky888	Noavg 44¢	$160.96	$234.12	+$73.16	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 44.9¢	$146.25	$208.25	+$62	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 55.8¢	$135.71	$87.58	-$48.13	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$45.53	$43.93	-$1.6	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
dips.<$100	Noavg 63¢	$32.76	$39	+$6.24	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$26.2	$25.6	-$0.6	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 46¢	$8.28	$11.52	+$3.24	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 73¢	$9.49	$9.75	+$0.26	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$6.27	$6.27	+$0	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.22	$5.77	-$0.45	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.65	$1.65	-$0	35% 635-1160 (1795)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,924.02

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$242.11

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

12monkeysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,293.49

Value

$950

PnL

-$343.5

Record

35%

19-36 (55)

RN1

Invested

$908.74

Value

$938.12

PnL

+$29.38

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$485

Value

$500.63

PnL

+$15.64

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

Both legs:

No$243.2963.7¢+$48.78

Yes$241.727.2¢-$33.15

VeryLucky888

Invested

$160.96

Value

$234.12

PnL

+$73.16

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

SnakeBall

Invested

$146.25

Value

$208.25

PnL

+$62

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.71

Value

$87.58

PnL

-$48.13

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.53

Value

$43.93

PnL

-$1.6

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

dips.<$100

Invested

$32.76

Value

$39

PnL

+$6.24

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$26.2

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$8.28

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$3.24

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$9.49

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.22

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$0.45

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.