CD Eldense vs. CE Sabadell FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 96¢ · $688 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$687.89
$78.15
70.7¢ → 95.5¢
+35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 81.8¢ | $312.33 | $318.41 | +$6.09 | 52% 2510-2301 (4811) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 59¢ | $208.27 | $287.7 | +$79.43 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 78.5¢ | $82.73 | $75.74 | -$6.99 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 9¢ | $1.8 | $3.7 | +$1.9 | 36% 649-1179 (1828) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 36.4¢ | $4.61 | $2.34 | -$2.27 | 39% 1595-2514 (4109) |
Invested
$312.33
Value
$318.41
PnL
+$6.09
Record
52%
2510-2301 (4811)
Invested
$208.27
Value
$287.7
PnL
+$79.43
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
Invested
$82.73
Value
$75.74
PnL
-$6.99
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$1.9
Record
36%
649-1179 (1828)
Invested
$4.61
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$2.27
Record
39%
1595-2514 (4109)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.