CD Eldense vs. CE Sabadell FC: O/U 2.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 62¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$74.61

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares11,827

Combined PnL+$137.4

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares10,695

Combined PnL-$62.79

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Overavg 37.4¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$122	8% 12-135 (147)
RN1	Underavg 62¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$0	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.6¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$51.19	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 62.7¢	$564	$558	-$6	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 62¢	$372	$372	-$0	47% 41-47 (88)
BI biying99999	Underavg 63¢	$310.59	$305.66	-$4.93	40% 153-230 (383)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 35¢	$175.36	$190.39	+$15.03	41% 156-221 (377)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Underavg 50¢	$650	$174	-$0	64% 145-83 (228)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 62.3¢	$147.61	$146.94	-$0.67	48% 472-515 (987)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 36.9¢	$6.97	$7.19	+$0.22	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$2.64	$2.79	+$0.15	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.9	+$0	41% 1189-1686 (2875)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Over

Invested

$4,226.44

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$122

Record

12-135 (147)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,100

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,044.63

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$51.19

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$564

Value

$558

PnL

-$6

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$372

Value

$372

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

41-47 (88)

biying99999

Under

Invested

$310.59

Value

$305.66

PnL

-$4.93

Record

40%

153-230 (383)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$175.36

Value

$190.39

PnL

+$15.03

Record

41%

156-221 (377)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Under

Invested

$650

Value

$174

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$147.61

Value

$146.94

PnL

-$0.67

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.97

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0.15

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.