CD Eldense vs. CE Sabadell FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$718.94

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares12,332

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares10,676

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 64.9¢	$7.1K	$8.8K	+$1.7K	8% 12-136 (148)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 81.5¢	$925.56	$1.0K	+$192.94	45% 373-460 (833)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 35¢	$837.64	$447.54	-$390.1	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 35¢	$443.15	$236.77	-$206.38	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 35¢	$359.5	$192.07	-$167.42	41% 166-240 (406)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 35.7¢	$323.25	$169.47	-$153.78	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 84.5¢	$84.5	$99.95	+$15.45	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 83¢	$73.04	$87.96	+$14.92	46% 998-1194 (2192)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 84.9¢	$90.4	$83.39	-$7.01	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 97¢	$74.69	$76.96	+$2.27	46% 888-1048 (1936)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 34.1¢	$1.7K	$62.48	$-1.6K	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$78.82	$42.11	-$36.71	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$4.86	$0.02	-$4.84	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 29.2¢	$9.62	$0.02	-$9.6	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$7.45	$0.01	-$7.44	54% 6042-5119 (11161)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$7,131.01

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

12-136 (148)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$925.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$192.94

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$837.64

Value

$447.54

PnL

-$390.1

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$443.15

Value

$236.77

PnL

-$206.38

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$359.5

Value

$192.07

PnL

-$167.42

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$323.25

Value

$169.47

PnL

-$153.78

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$84.5

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$15.45

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$73.04

Value

$87.96

PnL

+$14.92

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$90.4

Value

$83.39

PnL

-$7.01

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$74.69

Value

$76.96

PnL

+$2.27

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,678.35

Value

$62.48

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.82

Value

$42.11

PnL

-$36.71

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.86

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.84

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.62

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.6

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.44

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.