Will CE Sabadell FC win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$26.23

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 99.5¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,436

Combined PnL+$202.77

Yes6 traders

Total Value$7.03

Total Shares3,514

Combined PnL-$229

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 97.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$7.18	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 68.4¢	$367.38	$536.32	+$168.95	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 92.9¢	$209.1	$224.55	+$15.45	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$99.8	$99.8	-$0	78% 389-112 (501)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 88¢	$53.67	$60.87	+$7.2	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.97	$6.99	+$2.02	56% 672-523 (1195)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$193.9	$6.14	-$187.76	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Noavg 67¢	$4.04	$6.02	+$1.98	48% 643-686 (1329)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$39.68	$0.78	-$38.91	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.5	$0.05	-$0.45	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.1	$0.04	-$1.06	46% 888-1048 (1936)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.44	41% 744-1054 (1798)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$0.39	$0	-$0.39	41% 156-221 (377)

RN1

Invested

$1,490.34

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$7.18

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$367.38

Value

$536.32

PnL

+$168.95

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$209.1

Value

$224.55

PnL

+$15.45

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$99.8

Value

$99.8

PnL

-$0

Record

78%

389-112 (501)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$53.67

Value

$60.87

PnL

+$7.2

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$2.02

Record

56%

672-523 (1195)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.9

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$187.76

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$1.98

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.68

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$38.91

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.06

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.44

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

PnL

-$0.39

Record

41%

156-221 (377)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.