CD Eldense vs. Granada CF: O/U 1.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 67¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$26.47

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 67¢

+30% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,812

Combined PnL+$29.6

Over3 traders

Total Value$65.06

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$3.14

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$226.45	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$54.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$172.22
DA dashattacker	Underavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$29.25	72% 2539-970 (3509)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 46.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$9.54	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.4¢	$877.99	$965.16	+$87.16
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$624.06	$546.44	-$77.62
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 40.8¢	$334.94	$336.95	+$2.01	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 33.4¢	$20	$33.58	-$1.71	63% 1197-693 (1890)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 68¢	$31.28	$30.82	-$0.46	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 74¢	$28.29	$25.61	-$2.68	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 67¢	$8.62	$8.62	+$0	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 65¢	$3.42	$3.47	+$0.05	85% 5875-1000 (6875)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,130.35

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$226.45

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

Under$1,874.6456.6¢-$54.23

Over$1,255.7152.2¢-$172.22

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$1,608.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$29.25

Record

72%

2539-970 (3509)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,502.06

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$9.54

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Under$877.9946.4¢+$87.16

Over$624.0656¢-$77.62

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$334.94

Value

$336.95

PnL

+$2.01

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$33.58

PnL

-$1.71

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.28

Value

$30.82

PnL

-$0.46

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.29

Value

$25.61

PnL

-$2.68

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.62

Value

$8.62

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.05

Record

85%

5875-1000 (6875)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.