Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
SD Eibar vs. Granada CF: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.1K
$41.72
54.8¢ → 50¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
86h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 55.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | +$10.13 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $6.47 | $16 | +$11.28 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 24.7¢ | $2.97 | $6.72 | +$3.75 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Underavg 21.8¢ | $40.01 | $3.19 | +$18.2 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $2.2 | -$1.65 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
Invested
$1,236.32
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.13
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1<$100Invested
$6.47
Value
$16
PnL
+$11.28
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$3.75
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$40.01
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$18.2
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$1.65
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.