SD Eibar vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$612.04

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 87.5¢

+66% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,828

Combined PnL+$612.04

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 51¢	$816.23	$1.0K	+$213.65	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
RN1	Underavg 58.7¢	$667.49	$893.88	+$226.39	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 53.9¢	$281.68	$328.84	+$47.16	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.9¢	$154.31	$250.69	+$96.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.4¢	$127.37	$78.15	-$49.21
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 41¢	$69.49	$133.9	+$64.41	48% 490-523 (1013)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 42¢	$77.4	$118.55	+$42.17	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$56.98	$99.03	+$42.05	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 59¢	$42.85	$57.37	+$14.52	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8.04	$12.7	+$4.66	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 43¢	$5	$9.18	+$4.18	38% 1375-2208 (3583)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$816.23

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$213.65

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

RN1

Under

Invested

$667.49

Value

$893.88

PnL

+$226.39

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$281.68

Value

$328.84

PnL

+$47.16

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

Both legs:

Under$154.3153.9¢+$96.38

Over$127.3720.4¢-$49.21

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$69.49

Value

$133.9

PnL

+$64.41

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$77.4

Value

$118.55

PnL

+$42.17

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$56.98

Value

$99.03

PnL

+$42.05

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$42.85

Value

$57.37

PnL

+$14.52

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$8.04

Value

$12.7

PnL

+$4.66

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$9.18

PnL

+$4.18

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.