Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

SD Eibar vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 38¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 38¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares7,673

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over2 traders

Total Value$45.71

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$6.5

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 53.4¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$424.07	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.4¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$221.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 81¢	$1.2K	$542.81	-$645.5
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44.5¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$322.23	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 71.8¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$313.51	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.8¢	$1.0K	$651.9	-$387.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.4¢	$309.45	$383.54	+$74.09
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 19.3¢	$302.85	$862.95	+$560.1	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 28.1¢	$421.12	$824.64	+$403.52	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 54¢	$457.43	$432.02	-$25.41	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 19¢	$42.18	$113.22	+$71.04	48% 490-523 (1013)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 54.3¢	$87.78	$106.5	+$18.72	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.3¢	$70.38	$63.55	-$6.83
└ Under leg	Underavg 20.7¢	$17.4	$42.95	+$25.55
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$29.07	$78.04	+$48.97	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$31.58	$67.11	+$35.53	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 39.2¢	$84.27	$50.75	+$3.8	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Overavg 52¢	$32.61	$31.01	-$1.6	59% 751-515 (1266)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$26.47	$28.86	+$2.39	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 65.3¢	$19.6	$14.7	-$4.9	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 26.7¢	$7.03	$13.42	+$6.39	38% 1353-2203 (3556)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,417.87

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$424.07

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Both legs:

Under$1,229.5653.4¢+$221.43

Over$1,188.3181¢-$645.5

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,368.1

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$322.23

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,348.94

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$313.51

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Both legs:

Over$1,039.4971.8¢-$387.59

Under$309.4544.4¢+$74.09

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$302.85

Value

$862.95

PnL

+$560.1

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$421.12

Value

$824.64

PnL

+$403.52

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$457.43

Value

$432.02

PnL

-$25.41

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$42.18

Value

$113.22

PnL

+$71.04

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$87.78

Value

$106.5

PnL

+$18.72

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

Both legs:

Over$70.3854.3¢-$6.83

Under$17.420.7¢+$25.55

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.07

Value

$78.04

PnL

+$48.97

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.58

Value

$67.11

PnL

+$35.53

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.27

Value

$50.75

PnL

+$3.8

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

lonmi2511<$100

Over

Invested

$32.61

Value

$31.01

PnL

-$1.6

Record

59%

751-515 (1266)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.47

Value

$28.86

PnL

+$2.39

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$19.6

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$4.9

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.03

Value

$13.42

PnL

+$6.39

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.