SD Eibar vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 0.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 94¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$539.91

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 94.4¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares9,185

Combined PnL-$588.52

Under6 traders

Total Value$267.78

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$48.61

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 87.3¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$304.72	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
RN1	Overavg 87.1¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$179.36	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 91¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$54.6	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
└ Over leg	Overavg 91¢	$940	$836.71	-$103.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 17.8¢	$702.6	$751.3	+$48.7
LO lonmi2511	Overavg 82.2¢	$810.8	$799.05	-$11.75	59% 751-515 (1266)
CI cigarettes	Overavg 90.8¢	$520.82	$464.61	-$56.21	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 91.2¢	$182.4	$162	-$20.4	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 21.2¢	$112.16	$147.14	+$34.97	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 27.6¢	$54.01	$54.4	+$0.39	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 93¢	$66.66	$52.58	-$14.08	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 24.2¢	$43.96	$48.5	+$4.54	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 91¢	$18.2	$16.2	-$2	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 7.5¢	$3.62	$9.16	+$5.53	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$5.2	$7.6	+$2.4	78% 389-112 (501)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.21	$0.99	+$0.78	48% 490-523 (1013)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$4,047.15

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$304.72

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,552.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$179.36

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,642.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$54.6

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

Both legs:

Over$94091¢-$103.3

Under$702.617.8¢+$48.7

lonmi2511

Over

Invested

$810.8

Value

$799.05

PnL

-$11.75

Record

59%

751-515 (1266)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$520.82

Value

$464.61

PnL

-$56.21

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$182.4

Value

$162

PnL

-$20.4

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$112.16

Value

$147.14

PnL

+$34.97

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.01

Value

$54.4

PnL

+$0.39

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$66.66

Value

$52.58

PnL

-$14.08

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.96

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$4.54

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$18.2

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.62

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$5.53

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.2

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

78%

389-112 (501)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.