Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SD Eibar vs. Cádiz CF end in a draw?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 39¢ · $774 held · ended Nov 15

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$773.68

Combined PnL

$55.26

Smart Money Entry

29¢ → 38.5¢

+33% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$591.68

Total Shares1,849

Combined PnL+$55.54

No2 traders

Total Value$70.71

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$0.28

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$246.69	$288.63	+$41.94	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$121.39	$111.29	-$10.11	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$69.7	$65.6	-$4.1
└ No leg	Noavg 76.9¢	$51.69	$45.69	-$6.01
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$102.35	$105.65	+$3.3	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 31.6¢	$99.11	$100.4	+$1.29	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 68¢	$67.99	$67.99	+$0	43% 561-753 (1314)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$28.57	$30.47	+$1.9	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$14.49	$20.17	+$5.67	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$19.09	$19.56	+$0.47	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$12.53	$12.93	+$0.4	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$12.09	$12.48	+$0.39	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3	$2.72	-$0.28	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$0.95	$0.98	+$0.03	48% 643-686 (1329)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$0.27	$0.41	+$0.14	53% 1923-1675 (3598)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$246.69

Value

$288.63

PnL

+$41.94

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$121.39

Value

$111.29

PnL

-$10.11

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

Both legs:

Invested

$102.35

Value

$105.65

PnL

+$3.3

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$99.11

Value

$100.4

PnL

+$1.29

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$67.99

Value

$67.99

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.57

Value

$30.47

PnL

+$1.9

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.49

Value

$20.17

PnL

+$5.67

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.09

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$0.47

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.53

Value

$12.93

PnL

+$0.4

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.09

Value

$12.48

PnL

+$0.39

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

NotJump<$100

Invested

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.