Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-11-15?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 85¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$108.76

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 84.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,625

Combined PnL+$30.44

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares8,451

Combined PnL+$78.32

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 85¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$17.98	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
RN1	Noavg 86¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15.45	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$79.31	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
LI Limousin	Noavg 86¢	$264.66	$263.12	-$1.54	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
VE Venusian	Noavg 86¢	$264.66	$263.12	-$1.54	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
NO NotJump	Noavg 86¢	$105.29	$104.34	-$0.95	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 85¢	$82.92	$82.92	+$0	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Noavg 85¢	$51.21	$51.76	+$0.55	48% 638-680 (1318)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$40.26	$40.74	+$0.48	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$33.33	$32.22	-$1.11	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 85¢	$15.48	$15.48	+$0	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.12	$1.25	+$0.13	48% 472-515 (987)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3	$0.27	-$0.01	53% 1909-1671 (3580)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,627.62

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$17.98

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

RN1

Invested

$1,328.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15.45

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,194.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$79.31

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Limousin

Invested

$264.66

Value

$263.12

PnL

-$1.54

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

Venusian

Invested

$264.66

Value

$263.12

PnL

-$1.54

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

NotJump

Invested

$105.29

Value

$104.34

PnL

-$0.95

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$82.92

Value

$82.92

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Invested

$51.21

Value

$51.76

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$40.26

Value

$40.74

PnL

+$0.48

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.33

Value

$32.22

PnL

-$1.11

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$15.48

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.