SD Eibar vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (88%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$279.91

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 99.6¢

+21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares5,049

Combined PnL-$23.25

Under1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,133

Combined PnL-$256.66

Over — 88%Under — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$12.13	95% 23029-1160 (24189)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 43¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$256.66	72% 2416-933 (3349)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$317.26	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$827.07	$856.09	+$29.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 18.7¢	$279.2	$567.44	+$288.24
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 56.8¢	$626.38	$730.35	+$103.98	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.8¢	$551.68	$572.66	+$20.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 18¢	$74.7	$157.7	+$83
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 58.1¢	$576.31	$585.12	+$8.81	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 62¢	$955.26	$534.95	-$57.31	48% 933-1004 (1937)
RO Rock.San	Overavg 99.1¢	$495.5	$497.75	+$2.25	89% 12005-1415 (13420)
MA MarquisDeMott	Overavg 99.1¢	$228.92	$229.96	+$1.04	98% 3308-82 (3390)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 34¢	$44.18	$66.58	+$22.41	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 78¢	$52.69	$39.12	-$12.56	58% 41980-30479 (72459)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$2,182.58

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$12.13

Record

95%

23029-1160 (24189)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$2,207.29

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$256.66

Record

72%

2416-933 (3349)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,106.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$317.26

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

Both legs:

Over$827.0757¢+$29.02

Under$279.218.7¢+$288.24

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$626.38

Value

$730.35

PnL

+$103.98

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

Both legs:

Over$551.6856.8¢+$20.98

Under$74.718¢+$83

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$576.31

Value

$585.12

PnL

+$8.81

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$955.26

Value

$534.95

PnL

-$57.31

Record

48%

933-1004 (1937)

Rock.San

Over

Invested

$495.5

Value

$497.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

89%

12005-1415 (13420)

MarquisDeMott

Over

Invested

$228.92

Value

$229.96

PnL

+$1.04

Record

98%

3308-82 (3390)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$44.18

Value

$66.58

PnL

+$22.41

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$52.69

Value

$39.12

PnL

-$12.56

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.