CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 92¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 91.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,877

Combined PnL-$335.12

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares6,475

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 95.9¢	$6.2K	$5.9K	-$325.8	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Overavg 11¢	$361.42	$1.5K	+$1.1K	41% 160-233 (393)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 94.3¢	$291.91	$283.17	-$8.73	78% 379-110 (489)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 11¢	$66	$276	+$210	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 95.8¢	$222.98	$222.26	-$0.71	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 11¢	$135.87	$142.04	+$6.18	48% 469-508 (977)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 9.1¢	$123.57	$93.29	-$30.28	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
RN1<$100	Underavg 94¢	$24.38	$24.51	+$0.13	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$5	$7.5	+$2.5	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	35% 628-1146 (1774)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$6,224.26

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$325.8

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

mouzsynapseCTR

Over

Invested

$361.42

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

41%

160-233 (393)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$291.91

Value

$283.17

PnL

-$8.73

Record

78%

379-110 (489)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$66

Value

$276

PnL

+$210

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$222.98

Value

$222.26

PnL

-$0.71

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$135.87

Value

$142.04

PnL

+$6.18

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$123.57

Value

$93.29

PnL

-$30.28

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$24.38

Value

$24.51

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.