CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$332.55

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 98¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,507

Combined PnL+$835.4

Over4 traders

Total Value$58.04

Total Shares2,923

Combined PnL-$502.84

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 80.8¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$364.71	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 75¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$152.11	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
RN1	Underavg 82.8¢	$764.4	$905.54	+$141.15	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 73¢	$438	$588.6	+$150.6	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
SU suntori	Underavg 90¢	$215.04	$234.15	+$19.11	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 94.7¢	$151.48	$156.8	+$5.32	78% 379-110 (489)
WI Winning2...CTR	Overavg 19¢	$475	$50	-$425	18% 9-41 (50)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 77¢	$7.7	$9.8	+$2.1	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 76¢	$7.95	$7.03	-$0.91	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 22.9¢	$75.37	$6.25	-$69.11	41% 126-183 (309)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 74¢	$3.7	$4.91	+$1.21	46% 972-1163 (2135)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 6.9¢	$3.72	$1.03	-$2.69	35% 628-1146 (1774)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$6.8	$0.76	-$6.04	50% 1122-1124 (2246)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,838.88

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$364.71

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,177.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$152.11

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

RN1

Under

Invested

$764.4

Value

$905.54

PnL

+$141.15

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$438

Value

$588.6

PnL

+$150.6

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

suntori

Under

Invested

$215.04

Value

$234.15

PnL

+$19.11

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$151.48

Value

$156.8

PnL

+$5.32

Record

78%

379-110 (489)

Winning2...CTR

Over

Invested

$475

Value

$50

PnL

-$425

Record

18%

9-41 (50)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$7.7

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$2.1

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$7.95

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$0.91

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75.37

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$69.11

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$1.21

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.72

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$2.69

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.8

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$6.04

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.