CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 94¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$428.71

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 93.5¢

+44% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares9,127

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$176.35

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL-$677.8

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 62.4¢	$4.4K	$5.3K	+$866.71	49% 4635-4903 (9538)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 64.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$13.39	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Overavg 35.9¢	$1.2K	$999.62	+$105.13	46% 3227-3762 (6989)
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.9¢	$523.91	$525.74	+$50.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.6¢	$419.03	$473.88	+$54.85
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 73¢	$772.45	$984.08	+$211.63	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 89.6¢	$243.75	$253.03	+$9.28	78% 379-110 (489)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$206.56	$245.49	+$38.94	41% 126-183 (309)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.6¢	$110.61	$171.07	+$60.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 16.1¢	$95.95	$74.43	-$21.52
WI Winning2...CTR	Overavg 44¢	$660	$105	-$555	18% 9-41 (50)
RN1<$100	Underavg 62.6¢	$91.59	$94.73	+$3.14	54% 6016-5091 (11107)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 53.4¢	$134.31	$41.35	-$92.96	39% 1558-2437 (3995)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 59.4¢	$36.41	$21.24	-$15.17	49% 1310-1388 (2698)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 56¢	$6.06	$6.11	+$0.05	41% 1174-1671 (2845)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 24.4¢	$19.32	$5.93	-$13.39	35% 628-1146 (1774)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 59¢	$5.9	$5.85	-$0.05	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.7	+$1.2	37% 1335-2230 (3565)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.42	$3.58	+$1.16	56% 651-514 (1165)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$2.4	$2.08	-$0.32	46% 876-1026 (1902)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$1.71	$0.75	-$0.96	53% 7472-6600 (14072)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$4,408.7

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$866.71

Record

49%

4635-4903 (9538)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,115.12

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$13.39

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

suntoriARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,186.9

Value

$999.62

PnL

+$105.13

Record

46%

3227-3762 (6989)

Both legs:

Over$523.9135.9¢+$50.28

Under$419.0356.6¢+$54.85

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$772.45

Value

$984.08

PnL

+$211.63

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$243.75

Value

$253.03

PnL

+$9.28

Record

78%

379-110 (489)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$206.56

Value

$245.49

PnL

+$38.94

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

Both legs:

Under$110.6156.6¢+$60.46

Over$95.9516.1¢-$21.52

Winning2...CTR

Over

Invested

$660

Value

$105

PnL

-$555

Record

18%

9-41 (50)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$91.59

Value

$94.73

PnL

+$3.14

Record

54%

6016-5091 (11107)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$134.31

Value

$41.35

PnL

-$92.96

Record

39%

1558-2437 (3995)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.41

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$15.17

Record

49%

1310-1388 (2698)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$6.06

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

1174-1671 (2845)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.32

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$13.39

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$1.2

Record

37%

1335-2230 (3565)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$2.42

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$1.16

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.32

Record

46%

876-1026 (1902)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.96

Record

53%

7472-6600 (14072)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.