CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$95.74

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 81.5¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$967.78

Total Shares1,688

Combined PnL-$247.88

Under8 traders

Total Value$847.32

Total Shares2,054

Combined PnL+$152.14

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 71.9¢	$1.2K	$933.89	-$253.39	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 39¢	$525.21	$494.25	-$30.96	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$268.07	$285.32	+$17.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$257.14	$208.93	-$48.21
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 39.7¢	$351.22	$371.23	+$20.01	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 34.9¢	$304.64	$247.53	-$57.1	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.4¢	$128.34	$176.9	+$48.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.9¢	$176.3	$70.63	-$105.66
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 25.4¢	$122.96	$207.91	+$84.95	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 30.7¢	$112.06	$129.71	+$17.65	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 40.1¢	$70.19	$79.64	+$9.45	41% 126-183 (309)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$26.26	$43.43	+$17.17	56% 649-514 (1163)
dips.<$100	Overavg 65¢	$15.6	$19.44	+$3.84	48% 1294-1381 (2675)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 70.9¢	$12.77	$14.45	+$1.68	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 32.3¢	$7.86	$10.59	+$2.73	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$3.16	$3.42	+$0.26	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$1.47	$1.39	-$0.08	38% 1338-2179 (3517)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,187.28

Value

$933.89

PnL

-$253.39

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$525.21

Value

$494.25

PnL

-$30.96

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Both legs:

Under$268.0739¢+$17.25

Over$257.1472¢-$48.21

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$351.22

Value

$371.23

PnL

+$20.01

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$304.64

Value

$247.53

PnL

-$57.1

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Both legs:

Over$128.3462.4¢+$48.56

Under$176.334.9¢-$105.66

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$122.96

Value

$207.91

PnL

+$84.95

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$112.06

Value

$129.71

PnL

+$17.65

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.19

Value

$79.64

PnL

+$9.45

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.26

Value

$43.43

PnL

+$17.17

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$15.6

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$3.84

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$12.77

Value

$14.45

PnL

+$1.68

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.86

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$2.73

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.