CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 0.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$389.23

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,360

Combined PnL-$14.46

Under9 traders

Total Value$255.93

Total Shares3,174

Combined PnL-$374.77

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 91¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.06	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
CI cigarettes	Overavg 98¢	$588	$591	+$3	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 96.1¢	$243.6	$211.08	-$32.52	82% 279-60 (339)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 13.1¢	$387.19	$191.67	-$195.52	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 10.4¢	$33.3	$35.3	+$2	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$15.26	$14.71	-$0.54	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 16.9¢	$6.76	$6.7	-$0.06	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 16.7¢	$184.91	$4.42	-$180.5	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 15.1¢	$1.6	$1.68	+$0.07	41% 126-183 (309)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$0.65	$0.6	-$0.05	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$0.73	$0.59	-$0.15	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$0.3	$0.26	-$0.03	35% 628-1146 (1774)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,370.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.06

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$588

Value

$591

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$243.6

Value

$211.08

PnL

-$32.52

Record

82%

279-60 (339)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$387.19

Value

$191.67

PnL

-$195.52

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.3

Value

$35.3

PnL

+$2

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.26

Value

$14.71

PnL

-$0.54

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.76

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$184.91

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$180.5

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.07

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.15

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.