Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 49¢ · $525 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$525.44
$19.81
38.2¢ → 48.5¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 38.5¢ | $337.53 | $386.86 | +$49.33 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 38.5¢ | $240.66 | $293.76 | +$53.1 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55.1¢ | $96.88 | $93.1 | -$3.78 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 35.1¢ | $60.35 | $79.84 | +$19.49 | 47% 1186-1358 (2544) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $31.42 | $31.42 | +$0 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $9.07 | $13.98 | +$4.91 | 37% 1333-2226 (3559) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 58.2¢ | $14.53 | $11.11 | -$3.42 | 50% 2835-2864 (5699) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $2.23 | -$1.17 | 56% 649-514 (1163) |
Invested
$337.53
Value
$386.86
PnL
+$49.33
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.35
Value
$79.84
PnL
+$19.49
Record
47%
1186-1358 (2544)
Invested
$31.42
Value
$31.42
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$9.07
Value
$13.98
PnL
+$4.91
Record
37%
1333-2226 (3559)
Invested
$14.53
Value
$11.11
PnL
-$3.42
Record
50%
2835-2864 (5699)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$1.17
Record
56%
649-514 (1163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.