Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 22¢ · $684 held · ended Nov 15

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

Total Value

$684

Combined PnL

-$66.87

Smart Money Entry

24.8¢ → 21.5¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$406.3

Total Shares1,900

Combined PnL-$64.95

No7 traders

Total Value$276.99

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$1.92

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$147.35	$166.73	+$19.39	38% 1341-2182 (3523)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 30.3¢	$176.38	$125.31	-$51.07	49% 4635-4903 (9538)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 81¢	$93.95	$94.52	+$0.57	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 81¢	$83.24	$84.75	+$1.52	42% 548-747 (1295)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$107.23	$72.54	-$34.69	38% 1317-2168 (3485)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$35.09	$36.01	+$0.92	54% 6016-5091 (11107)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 81¢	$29.52	$29.34	-$0.18	46% 876-1026 (1902)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 72¢	$30.96	$28.81	-$2.15	41% 126-183 (309)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$28.77	$27.12	-$1.65	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 80¢	$9.76	$9.82	+$0.06	50% 1120-1122 (2242)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73¢	$2.7	$2.63	-$0.07	53% 1889-1647 (3536)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2	$2.2	+$0.2	21% 65-245 (310)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.65	+$0.1	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.3	$1.4	+$0.1	38% 1341-2205 (3546)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$0.35	$0.45	+$0.09	47% 1186-1362 (2548)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.35

Value

$166.73

PnL

+$19.39

Record

38%

1341-2182 (3523)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.38

Value

$125.31

PnL

-$51.07

Record

49%

4635-4903 (9538)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$93.95

Value

$94.52

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$83.24

Value

$84.75

PnL

+$1.52

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.23

Value

$72.54

PnL

-$34.69

Record

38%

1317-2168 (3485)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.09

Value

$36.01

PnL

+$0.92

Record

54%

6016-5091 (11107)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$29.52

Value

$29.34

PnL

-$0.18

Record

46%

876-1026 (1902)

foooool<$100

Invested

$30.96

Value

$28.81

PnL

-$2.15

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$28.77

Value

$27.12

PnL

-$1.65

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

1120-1122 (2242)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

1889-1647 (3536)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

21%

65-245 (310)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1341-2205 (3546)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.09

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.