Will CD Tenerife win on 2026-11-15?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$85.06

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,869

Combined PnL+$48.35

No3 traders

Total Value$450.6

Total Shares835

Combined PnL+$36.71

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Yesavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$26.45	41% 156-221 (377)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$770.19	$809.74	+$39.56	42% 547-747 (1294)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$425	$433.5	+$8.5
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$345.19	$376.24	+$31.06
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 50¢	$696	$709.92	+$13.92	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$623.47	$656.54	+$33.07	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$403.47	$411.54	+$8.07
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$220	$245	+$25
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 50¢	$423.06	$418	+$8.4	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 44.4¢	$319.19	$349.2	+$30	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$190.57	$195.6	+$5.03	56% 649-514 (1163)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.5¢	$127.84	$126.52	-$1.32
└ No leg	Noavg 44.5¢	$62.73	$69.08	+$6.35
SU suntoriARB<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$89.2	$89.53	+$1.27	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53¢	$51.11	$48.66	-$2.45
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$37.16	$40.87	+$3.72
tradecraftARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$67.75	$70.95	+$3.21	34% 460-894 (1354)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$45.75	$46.2	+$0.46
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$22	$24.75	+$2.75
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 46.6¢	$57.27	$60.18	+$2.91	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$37.43	$41.22	+$3.79	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$8.84	$8.37	-$0.47	5% 19-393 (412)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.83	$2.89	+$0.06	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

Kyn008

Yes

Invested

$1,322.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.45

Record

41%

156-221 (377)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$770.19

Value

$809.74

PnL

+$39.56

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

Both legs:

Invested

$696

Value

$709.92

PnL

+$13.92

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$623.47

Value

$656.54

PnL

+$33.07

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

Both legs:

Invested

$423.06

Value

$418

PnL

+$8.4

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$319.19

Value

$349.2

PnL

+$30

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$190.57

Value

$195.6

PnL

+$5.03

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

Both legs:

Yes$127.8451.5¢-$1.32

No$62.7344.5¢+$6.35

suntoriARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.2

Value

$89.53

PnL

+$1.27

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Both legs:

Invested

$67.75

Value

$70.95

PnL

+$3.21

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

Both legs:

Yes$45.7550¢+$0.46

No$2244¢+$2.75

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$57.27

Value

$60.18

PnL

+$2.91

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$37.43

Value

$41.22

PnL

+$3.79

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

rabbitfoot1<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.84

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$0.47

Record

19-393 (412)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.