Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Tenerife vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to Score
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 48¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$2.2K
$149.76
57.8¢ → 47.5¢
-18% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 61¢ | $946.72 | $970 | +$23.28 | 54% 6014-5089 (11103) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 54.8¢ | $834.01 | $951.66 | +$117.65 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
FO fooooolCTR | Noavg 61.2¢ | $112.9 | $115.37 | +$2.48 | 41% 126-183 (309) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $51.1 | $52.22 | +$1.12 | 56% 649-514 (1163) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $34.62 | $36.7 | +$2.08 | 47% 1186-1358 (2544) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $31.42 | $34.37 | +$2.95 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $17.42 | $17.59 | +$0.17 | 59% 746-512 (1258) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $12.03 | $12.03 | -$0 | 53% 1883-1643 (3526) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $4.8 | $4.85 | +$0.05 | 48% 2518-2728 (5246) |
RN1CTRInvested
$946.72
Value
$970
PnL
+$23.28
Record
54%
6014-5089 (11103)
Invested
$834.01
Value
$951.66
PnL
+$117.65
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$112.9
Value
$115.37
PnL
+$2.48
Record
41%
126-183 (309)
Invested
$51.1
Value
$52.22
PnL
+$1.12
Record
56%
649-514 (1163)
Invested
$34.62
Value
$36.7
PnL
+$2.08
Record
47%
1186-1358 (2544)
Invested
$31.42
Value
$34.37
PnL
+$2.95
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$17.42
Value
$17.59
PnL
+$0.17
Record
59%
746-512 (1258)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.03
Value
$12.03
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
1883-1643 (3526)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
2518-2728 (5246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.