CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 4.5

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 2

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$353.85

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 99.5¢

+11% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares9,988

Combined PnL+$348.62

Over5 traders

Total Value$13.74

Total Shares173

Combined PnL+$5.24

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ER72SEN	Underavg 89.8¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$65.5	68% 337-156 (493)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 82.4¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$303.9	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$21	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 83.6¢	$873.43	$1.4K	+$494.07	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
└ Over leg	Overavg 7.1¢	$313.45	$822.85	+$509.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 83.6¢	$559.98	$544.65	-$15.33
RI RichieRicher	Underavg 94¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$44.74	54% 751-650 (1401)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 15.5¢	$905.19	$780.15	-$125.05	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
└ Over leg	Overavg 15.5¢	$718.47	$585.98	-$132.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 84¢	$186.72	$194.17	+$7.45
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$580.46	$583.39	+$2.93	95% 23319-1170 (24489)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 11.9¢	$368.43	$265.62	-$102.81	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
└ Under leg	Underavg 79.7¢	$131.22	$155.59	+$24.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 11.9¢	$237.21	$110.02	-$127.19
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 85.7¢	$75.23	$75.95	+$0.72	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 81.7¢	$72.45	$67.98	-$4.46	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 85.1¢	$10.26	$12.98	+$2.71	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 82¢	$10.92	$12	+$1.08	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 2.8¢	$2.52	$6.11	+$3.59	48% 3291-3584 (6875)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.07	-$0.03	51% 1005-965 (1970)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$3.64	$3.51	-$0.13	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$0.45	$1.54	+$1.09	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 14.9¢	$1.6	$1.36	-$0.24	55% 8534-6852 (15386)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 1.2¢	$0.3	$1.23	+$0.93	56% 18394-14718 (33112)

ER72SEN

Under

Invested

$2,695.03

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$65.5

Record

68%

337-156 (493)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,331.79

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$303.9

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,127.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$21

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$873.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$494.07

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Both legs:

Over$313.457.1¢+$509.4

Under$559.9883.6¢-$15.33

RichieRicher

Under

Invested

$1,401.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$44.74

Record

54%

751-650 (1401)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$905.19

Value

$780.15

PnL

-$125.05

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

Both legs:

Over$718.4715.5¢-$132.49

Under$186.7284¢+$7.45

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$580.46

Value

$583.39

PnL

+$2.93

Record

95%

23319-1170 (24489)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$368.43

Value

$265.62

PnL

-$102.81

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

Both legs:

Under$131.2279.7¢+$24.38

Over$237.2111.9¢-$127.19

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$75.23

Value

$75.95

PnL

+$0.72

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$72.45

Value

$67.98

PnL

-$4.46

Record

47%

10059-11176 (21235)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$10.26

Value

$12.98

PnL

+$2.71

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$10.92

Value

$12

PnL

+$1.08

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$3.59

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$1.09

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

8534-6852 (15386)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.3

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.93

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.