CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 3.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$15.37

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 72¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,809

Combined PnL-$11.52

Over3 traders

Total Value$41.35

Total Shares125

Combined PnL-$3.85

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 33.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$124.4	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.8¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$197.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.9¢	$780.92	$854.01	+$73.09
MR MrBently	Underavg 68¢	$1.0K	$981.42	-$45.01	53% 557-496 (1053)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 62¢	$726.21	$762.27	+$36.06	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 63¢	$150.29	$146.86	-$3.43	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63¢	$81.64	$73.87	-$7.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.4¢	$68.64	$72.99	+$4.35
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 71.3¢	$133.52	$131.78	-$1.74	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$40.44	$35.97	-$4.47	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 60.5¢	$25.36	$24.52	-$0.84	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 57¢	$12.02	$12.02	-$0	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$2.86	$3.23	+$0.37	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.15	+$0.25	51% 1005-965 (1970)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,177.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$124.4

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Both legs:

Over$1,396.9133.8¢-$197.48

Under$780.9264.9¢+$73.09

MrBently

Under

Invested

$1,026.43

Value

$981.42

PnL

-$45.01

Record

53%

557-496 (1053)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$726.21

Value

$762.27

PnL

+$36.06

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$150.29

Value

$146.86

PnL

-$3.43

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

Both legs:

Under$81.6463¢-$7.78

Over$68.6440.4¢+$4.35

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$133.52

Value

$131.78

PnL

-$1.74

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.44

Value

$35.97

PnL

-$4.47

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$25.36

Value

$24.52

PnL

-$0.84

Record

47%

10059-11176 (21235)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$12.02

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.