Will CD Tenerife win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 92¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

Yes92¢No8¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 92¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 21 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,348

Combined PnL+$100.52

No14 traders

Total Value$886.45

Total Shares7,540

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 67.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$116.55	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
GR graziek99	Yesavg 91¢	$909.71	$890	-$19.71	87% 464-71 (535)
RN1CTR	Noavg 22.5¢	$689.34	$369.83	-$319.51	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 57¢	$1.2K	$252.29	-$967.09	50% 183-181 (364)
NO NotJump	Yesavg 90¢	$169.6	$166.7	-$2.9	44% 9904-12850 (22754)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Noavg 58¢	$241.41	$126.17	-$117.68	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.8¢	$99.99	$96.91	-$3.08
└ No leg	Noavg 58¢	$141.42	$29.26	-$114.6
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Noavg 12.3¢	$85.88	$83.56	-$16.7	61% 13851-8756 (22607)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67¢	$35.69	$48.74	-$1.33
└ No leg	Noavg 12.3¢	$50.19	$34.81	-$15.37
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 12.3¢	$76.48	$74.62	-$1.86	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 53.7¢	$232.88	$41.19	-$191.69	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$33.97	$40.77	+$6.79	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$57.62	$28.86	-$28.76	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$20.25	$24.3	+$4.05	40% 1074-1636 (2710)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$23.87	$20.64	-$3.23	50% 34712-34175 (68887)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$69.19	$14.27	-$56.1	51% 6159-5875 (12034)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$5.32	$12.32	+$0.7	53% 16265-14441 (30706)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$3.21	$8.57	+$5.36	35% 109-204 (313)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 16.3¢	$9.19	$6.78	-$2.41	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 57.9¢	$27.78	$6.42	-$21.36	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
SM smithagent<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$5	$5.11	+$0.12	48% 3291-3584 (6875)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$7.86	$3.09	-$4.77	62% 1231-751 (1982)
0X 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$6.18	$2.18	-$4	42% 1632-2230 (3862)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$0.72	$1.52	+$0.41	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.8	$1.2	-$4.6	51% 1005-965 (1970)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,259.68

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$116.55

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

graziek99

Yes

Invested

$909.71

Value

$890

PnL

-$19.71

Record

87%

464-71 (535)

RN1CTR

Invested

$689.34

Value

$369.83

PnL

-$319.51

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$1,198.36

Value

$252.29

PnL

-$967.09

Record

50%

183-181 (364)

NotJump

Yes

Invested

$169.6

Value

$166.7

PnL

-$2.9

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

suntoriARB<$100

Invested

$241.41

Value

$126.17

PnL

-$117.68

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

Both legs:

Yes$99.9990.8¢-$3.08

No$141.4258¢-$114.6

LilybaeumARB<$100

Invested

$85.88

Value

$83.56

PnL

-$16.7

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

Both legs:

Yes$35.6967¢-$1.33

No$50.1912.3¢-$15.37

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$76.48

Value

$74.62

PnL

-$1.86

Record

47%

10059-11176 (21235)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$232.88

Value

$41.19

PnL

-$191.69

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$33.97

Value

$40.77

PnL

+$6.79

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$57.62

Value

$28.86

PnL

-$28.76

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$4.05

Record

40%

1074-1636 (2710)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$23.87

Value

$20.64

PnL

-$3.23

Record

50%

34712-34175 (68887)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$69.19

Value

$14.27

PnL

-$56.1

Record

51%

6159-5875 (12034)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.32

Value

$12.32

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

16265-14441 (30706)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.21

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$5.36

Record

35%

109-204 (313)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$9.19

Value

$6.78

PnL

-$2.41

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$27.78

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$21.36

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

smithagent<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$4.77

Record

62%

1231-751 (1982)

0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100

Invested

$6.18

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$4

Record

42%

1632-2230 (3862)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.41

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$4.6

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 21 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.