Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Score
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 16¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
2 arb excluded
$4.6K
$-2.7K
40.4¢ → 15.5¢
-62% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $3.7K | $1.8K | $-1.8K | 51% 22704-21519 (44223) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 85.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$14.31 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.1¢ | $2.4K | $643 | $-1.8K | |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 98¢ | $2.5K | $1.5K | -$816.45 | 54% 21790-18840 (40630) |
DI dips.CTR | Noavg 35.1¢ | $1.7K | $731.16 | -$922.96 | 46% 7486-8689 (16175) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 49.9¢ | $1.3K | $405.94 | -$901.93 | 58% 49170-35288 (84458) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 46.9¢ | $254.95 | $126.18 | -$128.77 | 47% 10361-11563 (21924) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 90¢ | $68.87 | $64.66 | -$4.21 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.9¢ | $186.08 | $61.52 | -$124.56 | |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $33.61 | $30.52 | -$10.87 | 57% 11685-8789 (20474) |
Invested
$3,670.52
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
51%
22704-21519 (44223)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,465.38
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$816.45
Record
54%
21790-18840 (40630)
Invested
$1,655.89
Value
$731.16
PnL
-$922.96
Record
46%
7486-8689 (16175)
Invested
$1,307.88
Value
$405.94
PnL
-$901.93
Record
58%
49170-35288 (84458)
Invested
$254.95
Value
$126.18
PnL
-$128.77
Record
47%
10361-11563 (21924)
Both legs:
poshposh<$100Invested
$33.61
Value
$30.52
PnL
-$10.87
Record
57%
11685-8789 (20474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.