Will FC Andorra win on 2026-11-01?

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 2

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

$597.81

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 98.9¢

+5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$27.5K

Total Shares28,109

Combined PnL+$912.27

Yes7 traders

Total Value$121.55

Total Shares4,785

Combined PnL-$314.46

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 92.7¢	$15.4K	$8.4K	+$1.1K	93% 903-63 (966)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.5¢	$6.3K	$6.1K	-$174.76	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Noavg 99¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$15.15	95% 23319-1170 (24489)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 93.3¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$149.27	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$13.91	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
RN1	Noavg 90.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$62.49	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
AH aHjCz	Noavg 99¢	$562.9	$562.23	-$0.67	44% 4040-5234 (9274)
DI dips.	Noavg 92.9¢	$391.95	$399.87	+$9.2	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93.6¢	$354.32	$299.33	-$58.19	50% 34712-34175 (68887)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 92.7¢	$254.67	$251.93	-$2.74	61% 13851-8756 (22607)
SM smithagent	Noavg 97.7¢	$132.12	$129.55	-$2.57	48% 3291-3584 (6875)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$149.55	$127.77	-$21.78	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
└ No leg	Noavg 91.1¢	$95.66	$100.85	+$5.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.9¢	$53.89	$26.92	-$26.97
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$401.59	$60.9	-$340.69	52% 5708-5272 (10980)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$24.92	$54.87	+$29.95	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$44.48	$44.46	-$0.02	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 71¢	$18.16	$25.01	+$0.51	53% 16265-14441 (30706)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$8.79	-$1.11	51% 1005-965 (1970)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.79	$1.86	+$0.07	44% 9904-12850 (22754)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$3.9	$1.59	-$2.31	51% 6159-5875 (12034)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2	$1.34	-$0.61	52% 2651-2401 (5052)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.83	$0.95	-$0.88	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.02	$0.05	+$0.02	53% 1172-1041 (2213)

Momo63

Invested

$15,391.6

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

93%

903-63 (966)

Flaznorp

Invested

$6,324.68

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$174.76

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Invested

$4,999.5

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$15.15

Record

95%

23319-1170 (24489)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,092.54

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$149.27

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,797.46

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$13.91

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

RN1

Invested

$1,236.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$62.49

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

aHjCz

Invested

$562.9

Value

$562.23

PnL

-$0.67

Record

44%

4040-5234 (9274)

dips.

Invested

$391.95

Value

$399.87

PnL

+$9.2

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

SnakeBall

Invested

$354.32

Value

$299.33

PnL

-$58.19

Record

50%

34712-34175 (68887)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$254.67

Value

$251.93

PnL

-$2.74

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

smithagent

Invested

$132.12

Value

$129.55

PnL

-$2.57

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$149.55

Value

$127.77

PnL

-$21.78

Record

47%

10059-11176 (21235)

Both legs:

Invested

$401.59

Value

$60.9

PnL

-$340.69

Record

52%

5708-5272 (10980)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.92

Value

$54.87

PnL

+$29.95

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$44.48

Value

$44.46

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$18.16

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

16265-14441 (30706)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$8.79

PnL

-$1.11

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$0.07

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.9

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$2.31

Record

51%

6159-5875 (12034)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$0.61

Record

52%

2651-2401 (5052)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1172-1041 (2213)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.