Exact Score: CD Castellón 0 - 0 SD Eibar?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 6

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 59.6¢

-36% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,654

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$268.44

Total Shares664

Combined PnL+$222.13

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.5¢	$557.55	$1.6K	+$1.0K	50% 38141-37389 (75530)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 91.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$88.41	50% 2762-2741 (5503)
E4 e46m3	No	$0.88	$620.98	+$113.71	66% 27649-13951 (41600)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 96.2¢	$592.78	$367	-$224.6	51% 2020-1960 (3980)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$22.65	$218.72	+$196.08	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$59.08	$60.97	+$1.89	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.54	$29.49	+$26.3	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$2.46	$20.23	-$0.25	48% 1720-1837 (3557)

SnakeBall

Invested

$557.55

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

38141-37389 (75530)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$1,374.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$88.41

Record

50%

2762-2741 (5503)

e46m3

Invested

$0.88

Value

$620.98

PnL

+$113.71

Record

66%

27649-13951 (41600)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$592.78

Value

$367

PnL

-$224.6

Record

51%

2020-1960 (3980)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$22.65

Value

$218.72

PnL

+$196.08

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$59.08

Value

$60.97

PnL

+$1.89

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.54

Value

$29.49

PnL

+$26.3

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$20.23

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$61.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.