Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$15.94
69.1¢ → 88.5¢
+28% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 70.1¢ | $589.3 | $584.52 | -$4.79 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $279 | $265.02 | -$13.97 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $136 | +$33 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $64 | -$33 | |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 68.1¢ | $134.24 | $134.03 | -$0.21 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 67.1¢ | $130.15 | $133.91 | +$3.76 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 67¢ | $113.21 | $77.55 | +$1.7 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $34.54 | $34 | -$0.54 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $14.94 | $14.91 | -$0.03 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $6 | $1.15 | -$1.85 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
rayvanmechelenInvested
$589.3
Value
$584.52
PnL
-$4.79
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$279
Value
$265.02
PnL
-$13.97
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.24
Value
$134.03
PnL
-$0.21
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$130.15
Value
$133.91
PnL
+$3.76
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$113.21
Value
$77.55
PnL
+$1.7
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$34.54
Value
$34
PnL
-$0.54
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
$1.15
PnL
-$1.85
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.