Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Burgos CF vs. Celta Fortuna: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 0.5¢ · $73 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$73.21
$8.8
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $25.12 | $24.5 | -$0.62 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.7¢ | $13.75 | $15.08 | +$1.33 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $10.05 | $11.5 | +$1.45 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $5.68 | $10.2 | +$4.52 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $4.98 | +$2.27 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $4.62 | $4.09 | -$0.53 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.88 | +$0.38 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$25.12
Value
$24.5
PnL
-$0.62
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$15.08
PnL
+$1.33
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$5.68
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$4.52
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$2.27
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.09
PnL
-$0.53
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.38
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.