UD Almería vs. FC Andorra: O/U 1.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 100¢ · $996 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$995.96

Combined PnL

-$319.27

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$874.91

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL-$11.75

Under8 traders

Total Value$121.05

Total Shares1,865

Combined PnL-$307.52

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 73¢	$802.53	$790.94	-$11.6	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$59.77	$62.07	+$2.3	36% 455-810 (1265)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 99¢	$53.46	$53.73	+$0.27	44% 661-825 (1486)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 28.1¢	$31.17	$31.1	-$0.07	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 73¢	$30.66	$30.24	-$0.42	37% 78-132 (210)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 24.6¢	$16.55	$18.82	+$2.27	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$8.96	$5.76	-$3.2	48% 912-1002 (1914)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$1.1	$1.54	+$0.44	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$1.05	$1.01	-$0.04	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 27¢	$309.79	$0.57	-$309.22	36% 950-1657 (2607)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$0.18	$0.18	+$0.01	52% 833-779 (1612)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$802.53

Value

$790.94

PnL

-$11.6

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.77

Value

$62.07

PnL

+$2.3

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$53.46

Value

$53.73

PnL

+$0.27

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.17

Value

$31.1

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$30.66

Value

$30.24

PnL

-$0.42

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.55

Value

$18.82

PnL

+$2.27

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.96

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$3.2

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$309.79

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$309.22

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.