UD Almería vs. FC Andorra: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$93.19

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,132

Combined PnL+$4.87

Under4 traders

Total Value$793.27

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL+$88.32

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.59	99% 468-7 (475)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 73.8¢	$795.73	$648.8	-$146.94	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.8¢	$629.19	$328.12	-$301.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.9¢	$166.54	$320.68	+$154.14
RN1CTR	Underavg 68.1¢	$342.59	$367.51	+$24.92	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Underavg 62¢	$222.11	$261.51	+$39.41	60% 714-484 (1198)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 62¢	$93	$109.5	+$16.5	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$47.25	$54.75	+$7.5	55% 474-384 (858)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.35	-$0.6	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.35	+$0	37% 985-1642 (2627)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 30¢	$1.23	$1.11	-$0.12	46% 2702-3200 (5902)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$1,107

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.59

Record

99%

468-7 (475)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$795.73

Value

$648.8

PnL

-$146.94

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Under$629.1973.8¢-$301.07

Over$166.5431.9¢+$154.14

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$342.59

Value

$367.51

PnL

+$24.92

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

lonmi2511CTR

Under

Invested

$222.11

Value

$261.51

PnL

+$39.41

Record

60%

714-484 (1198)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$93

Value

$109.5

PnL

+$16.5

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.25

Value

$54.75

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.6

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.