Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

UD Almería vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Score

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$49.96

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 41.5¢

-17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,658

Combined PnL+$52.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$11.16

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$2.09

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Noavg 51¢	$955.38	$964.33	+$8.95	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 51.5¢	$542.25	$578.48	+$36.23	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 55.4¢	$231.69	$229.94	-$1.75	37% 78-132 (210)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.4¢	$153.38	$153.65	+$0.28
└ No leg	Noavg 45.7¢	$78.31	$76.29	-$2.03
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 51¢	$107	$107.85	+$0.85	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$82.5	$90	+$7.5	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$74.02	$76.66	+$2.64	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$66.06	$69.31	+$3.25	36% 950-1657 (2607)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$74.86	$68.21	-$6.65	37% 968-1674 (2642)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 44.8¢	$47.61	$46.75	-$0.86	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$13.26	$11.16	-$2.09	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$5.62	$5.8	+$0.18	48% 912-1002 (1914)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.33	-$0.02	37% 985-1642 (2627)

RN1CTR

Invested

$955.38

Value

$964.33

PnL

+$8.95

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$542.25

Value

$578.48

PnL

+$36.23

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$231.69

Value

$229.94

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

Both legs:

Yes$153.3855.4¢+$0.28

No$78.3145.7¢-$2.03

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$107

Value

$107.85

PnL

+$0.85

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$82.5

Value

$90

PnL

+$7.5

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$74.02

Value

$76.66

PnL

+$2.64

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$66.06

Value

$69.31

PnL

+$3.25

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$74.86

Value

$68.21

PnL

-$6.65

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$47.61

Value

$46.75

PnL

-$0.86

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.26

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.