Will FC Andorra win on 2026-11-14?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 33%
$2.5K
$33.29
78.9¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$12.9 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $623.46 | $640.87 | +$17.41 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 78¢ | $110.19 | $111.03 | +$0.84 | 59% 3767-2593 (6360) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $86.23 | $88.29 | +$2.05 | 48% 521-557 (1078) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $35.59 | $35.81 | +$0.23 | 52% 828-769 (1597) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $23.38 | $23.54 | +$0.17 | 37% 357-610 (967) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $2.77 | $2.52 | -$0.25 | 42% 1002-1373 (2375) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $2 | $2.05 | +$0.05 | 53% 1366-1192 (2558) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $1 | -$0.1 | 48% 2091-2257 (4348) |
Invested
$1,591.02
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$12.9
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Invested
$623.46
Value
$640.87
PnL
+$17.41
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
Invested
$110.19
Value
$111.03
PnL
+$0.84
Record
59%
3767-2593 (6360)
Invested
$86.23
Value
$88.29
PnL
+$2.05
Record
48%
521-557 (1078)
Invested
$35.59
Value
$35.81
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
828-769 (1597)
Invested
$23.38
Value
$23.54
PnL
+$0.17
Record
37%
357-610 (967)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$2.52
PnL
-$0.25
Record
42%
1002-1373 (2375)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
1366-1192 (2558)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
2091-2257 (4348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.