Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-08?

2 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 64¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 8

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.7K

Combined PnL

-$69.83

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 63.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 15 top traders (13%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$33.0K

Total Shares51,980

Combined PnL-$585.93

Yes13 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares51,689

Combined PnL+$516.09

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 64.6¢	$33.6K	$33.0K	-$586.06	48% 214-236 (450)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$8.9K	$9.3K	+$381.14	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$25.5	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$42.37	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.5¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$25.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.3¢	$813	$795.87	-$17.13
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$30.25	48% 313-335 (648)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 35¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$75	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 35.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$50.67	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$352.3	$330.62	-$21.68	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$351.51	$329.87	-$21.64	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 37.1¢	$289.4	$216.43	-$6.91	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 38.4¢	$212.93	$207.35	-$5.58	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.4¢	$172.2	$163.58	-$8.62
└ No leg	Noavg 59.1¢	$40.73	$43.77	+$3.04
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 63¢	$213.18	$205.93	-$1.91	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$158.43	$159.69	+$1.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.2¢	$54.75	$46.24	-$3.17
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$56.28	$58.69	+$2.41	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$18.51	$19.87	+$1.36	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 63¢	$16.38	$16.51	+$0.13	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$5.81	$5.89	+$0.08	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$10	$4.05	-$0.1	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$0.56	$0.57	+$0.01	51% 2075-2021 (4096)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$33,576.69

Value

$33.0K

PnL

-$586.06

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,893.32

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$381.14

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,002.47

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$25.5

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,487.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$42.37

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

No$1,674.9764.5¢-$25.25

Yes$81337.3¢-$17.13

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,177.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$30.25

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$75

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,514.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$50.67

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$352.3

Value

$330.62

PnL

-$21.68

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$351.51

Value

$329.87

PnL

-$21.64

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$289.4

Value

$216.43

PnL

-$6.91

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$212.93

Value

$207.35

PnL

-$5.58

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Yes$172.238.4¢-$8.62

No$40.7359.1¢+$3.04

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$213.18

Value

$205.93

PnL

-$1.91

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Both legs:

Invested

$56.28

Value

$58.69

PnL

+$2.41

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.51

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$1.36

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$16.38

Value

$16.51

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.89

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 15 top traders (13%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.