FC Utrecht vs. NEC: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$22.36
56.4¢ → 55.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$9.66 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $938.5 | $949.41 | +$10.91 | 46% 33216-38836 (72052) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 55¢ | $393.8 | $411.7 | +$17.9 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 55.7¢ | $409.21 | $356.11 | -$2.08 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.7¢ | $242.1 | $241.15 | -$0.95 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44.3¢ | $114.51 | $114.96 | -$1.12 | |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 56¢ | $496.55 | $285.52 | +$7.35 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $300 | $127.5 | -$7.5 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $55.96 | $59.29 | +$3.33 | 56% 8592-6809 (15401) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.88 | +$0.03 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
Invested
$1,101.56
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$9.66
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$938.5
Value
$949.41
PnL
+$10.91
Record
46%
33216-38836 (72052)
Invested
$393.8
Value
$411.7
PnL
+$17.9
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
Invested
$409.21
Value
$356.11
PnL
-$2.08
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Both legs:
Invested
$496.55
Value
$285.52
PnL
+$7.35
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$300
Value
$127.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$55.96
Value
$59.29
PnL
+$3.33
Record
56%
8592-6809 (15401)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.